Why is it decided now?
Because the decision isn't only yours. Gift-boxed seasonal lines are made and distributed months ahead: whatever you haven't ordered by the end of October may simply not be available in December — or only at a higher price, in a narrower range.
This is the one period in the year when being late isn't a delay, it's missing out. The reverse is just as true: whatever you order too early and in too large a quantity, you will be storing with your own money for three months.
The four product groups
| Group | When to order | What's the risk? |
|---|---|---|
| Long-life gift lines (boxed sweets, festive drinks) | Late September – October | Missing out: later it won't exist |
| Long-life festive food (tins, dry goods, spices) | Early November | Small: still sellable in January |
| Perishable festive lines (fresh bakery, dairy, meat) | The last two weeks, in small lots | Being left with it: January is zero |
| Everyday lines that spike (bread, eggs, sour cream) | Continuously, using a ratio | Running out on the worst possible days |
How much more should you order?
There is no universal multiplier, because the festive curve of a bakery, a newsagent and a general store differ by an order of magnitude. There is, however, a method that gives you yours.
- 11. Find the week it started last yearLook back at last year's daily turnover and find the week where it moved consistently above the normal level. That week is the start of the season — and it is usually not the one you remember.
- 22. Work with a ratio, not a differenceLast December's turnover ÷ last November's turnover. That ratio is your seasonality, and it is far more stable from year to year than the money amount.
- 33. Break the top ten down to unitsDon't plan the whole range. For your ten best-selling festive lines look up last year's unit counts — the rest can be topped up as you go.
- 44. Subtract what was left overThis is the step most often skipped. If forty boxes were left last year, then you didn't measure forty boxes of demand — you measured forty fewer.
- 55. Leave the last ten per cent openHold part of the order back for the middle of the season. Two weeks in you will know what is actually selling — and then you order from that, not from what you thought in September.
The dates to write down
- 1END OF SEPTEMBER: order the long-life gift lines. This is the only real deadline in the whole thing.
- 2OCTOBER: plan the shelf space. Festive stock takes space away — decide now what moves back, not in December.
- 3EARLY NOVEMBER: long-life festive food, and put out the first festive shelf. People who buy early buy twice.
- 4FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER: the top-up order from what you held back, based on what is really selling.
- 5THE LAST TEN DAYS: perishables, in small lots, daily if need be.
- 6THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER: the markdown plan. Whatever is left on the 24th has a price on the 27th — not in January.
If you have no data from last year
Every shop's first season looks like this, and it isn't a disaster — it just calls for a different strategy.
- Start with small lots and top up weekly. Running short is a lost sale; being left with stock is money already spent, standing still.
- Ask your supplier what sells locally — but know that it is in their interest for you to order a lot.
- Don't experiment with the most expensive gift box. A season can be got through in the middle price range, and next year you will have data.
- Write down EVERYTHING that sells: units and dates. This season is the raw material for next year's plan.
- Make a list of what was left over in early January — next September that list will be worth more than any advice.
What you'll regret in January
- The gift box you still hadn't marked down on 20 December. Two days before Christmas it is a present; after that it is packaging.
- The perishables you ordered for the last few days on a “better safe than sorry” basis.
- The shelf space festive stock occupies until January, while everyday lines get squeezed out.
- The supplier's deal you took because it was cheap, not because it sells.
- The single big order that handled all four product groups at once.
- Not writing down what sold — so next September you will be planning from memory again.
In summary
- Long-life gift lines have to be ordered between late September and October; that is the one hard date here.
- Four product groups, four deadlines and four different risks.
- Quantities come from last December ÷ last November, and in units for the top ten lines.
- Subtract what was left over — otherwise you re-order the mistake.
- Hold ten per cent of the order for mid-season.
- Markdowns start on 27 December, not in January.
Frequently asked questions
When do I have to place the Christmas order?
Long-life gift lines (boxed sweets, festive drinks) between late September and October — that is the one deadline where being late means missing out rather than waiting. Long-life festive food in early November, perishables in the last two weeks, in small lots.
How much more should I order than usual?
There is no universal multiplier. Here is how to get yours: last December's turnover divided by last November's. That ratio is considerably more stable from year to year than the money amount, and it describes your shop rather than an average.
What if I've just opened and have no data from last year?
Then start with small lots and top up weekly. In the first season the goal isn't maximum turnover, it's data: write down everything that sells, with units and dates. Next September that list will be worth more than any advice.
When should I start marking festive stock down?
On 27 December, not in January. Gift-boxed stock loses value by the day once the holiday has passed, and by January the problem is no longer the price — it's that nobody is looking for it. Start a week after Christmas and you will still turn most of the remainder into money.
Are suppliers' seasonal deals worth it?
Only when they are on lines that already sell for you. A good price is not demand: most seasonal deals exist so that the supplier's stock moves into your stockroom. The question is always the same — can you sell it by 6 January?
How should I plan the shelf space?
Decide in October what moves back. Festive stock takes space from everyday lines, and if you improvise that in December it is precisely your steady sellers that lose the best positions in the best weeks.
What should I do with what's left over?
In early January, list it item by item. It is the one list you will definitely use next September: you subtract it from the next order. Until that list exists, you re-order the same mistake every year.
Next year, stop ordering from memory.
Boltom App keeps your daily turnover and your per-product sales. Next season you plan from those, not from what you happen to remember in January.
- Daily turnover going back: you can see which week the festive buying actually started.
- Per-product sales: how many of each went, not an estimate.
- Waste is a separate line — so you can also see what you over-ordered.
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