How much do expired products cost you?
Almost no small-shop owner knows this number. Not from lack of interest: discarded stock appears nowhere. There is no invoice, no report — it simply leaves the shelf and goes in the bin. The money, however, is missing at the end of the month exactly as if it had been paid out.
In a typical grocery shop, waste runs at roughly one to three percent of turnover, and most of it comes from a handful of categories: fresh bakery, short-life dairy, pre-packed sandwiches and salads, and end-of-season lines.
The other side: an empty shelf costs more than you think
A stockout is dangerous because it leaves no trace. If the milk runs out at eleven, the afternoon customer doesn't complain — they go to the other shop and buy their bread there too. That sale never shows up as a minus; it simply doesn't happen.
| Overstock | Stockout | |
|---|---|---|
| What happens to the money? | Tied up on the shelf, then binned | It never arrives |
| Is it visible? | Yes: waste, spoilage, markdowns | No: a lost sale can't be measured |
| When do you find out? | On the expiry date | Never, only from falling turnover |
| How is it fixed? | Order less per delivery | Order more often |
Six steps to balanced stock
- 11. Record every waste item for two weeks — with a reasonNot just the amount: which product, how much, and why. Expiry points at order quantity, breakage at storage, chiller failure at equipment. After two weeks, five to eight products stand out.
- 22. Write down what ran out earlyThe same in the other direction. A sheet under the counter is enough: one tick every time someone has to say it's sold out.
- 33. Separate the two listsThey need opposite interventions. Waste means reducing the QUANTITY; running out means increasing the FREQUENCY. Mixing them up makes both worse.
- 44. Change one product at a timeTake ten to twenty percent off the order of your worst waste item — no more. A big cut just flips you into the other error, and then you can't tell which change caused what.
- 55. Watch for two weeks, then write the new quantity downWaste down without running out? That's your new baseline. If you don't record it, the old number returns with the next order — the most common reason fixes don't stick.
- 66. Run out what's stuck, don't bin itA timed discount two or three days before expiry still recovers the purchase price. That requires knowing what is about to expire — and the waste list tells you: whatever appears every month will appear next week too.
A worked example: what can you save?
A shop orders 40 bread rolls a day at a cost of 40 forints each and sells them for 89. On average 33 sell, 7 are thrown away after closing.
| Today | Five fewer per order | |
|---|---|---|
| Daily order | 40 pcs | 35 pcs |
| Daily sales | 33 pcs | 33 pcs |
| Daily waste | 7 pcs | 2 pcs |
| Daily loss at cost | 280 Ft | 80 Ft |
| Monthly loss (30 days) | 8,400 Ft | 2,400 Ft |
| Monthly difference | — | 6,000 Ft |
Six thousand forints a month on one item doesn't sound like much — but it comes straight out of profit, not turnover. At a twenty percent margin it is worth the same as selling thirty thousand forints more. Applied to five products, that is real money in a small shop.
Which error hurts more, product by product?
| Product type | Costlier error | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Fresh bakery | Overstock — worthless the next day | Order less, top up twice a day if you can |
| Milk and basic dairy | Stockout — this is what sends customers elsewhere | Always keep a buffer |
| Sandwiches, salads, ready meals | Overstock, discovered only in the afternoon | Order against morning sales, not the whole day |
| Tins and dry goods | Neither, really | Larger, less frequent orders |
| Seasonal lines | Overstock — unsellable after the season | Stop reordering in the last third of the season |
The weekly ten minutes
- 1Open last week's waste list and look at the top three products.
- 2Check the other list too: what ran out early.
- 3Pick ONE product to change — quantity or frequency, not both.
- 4Check whether anything expires within days, and discount it today.
- 5Write the new order quantity where the ordering actually happens.
Ten weeks of this puts ten products right — usually exactly the ten responsible for most of your waste and most of your stockouts. It needs no inventory system, only that waste is recorded rather than remembered.
In summary
Stockouts and overstock are not two problems but two bad ends of one decision. Record waste with reasons for two weeks, note what ran out early, then change one product at a time by a little, and look again two weeks later.
When waste, own consumption and daily sales are recorded in one place, that weekly ten minutes is just opening a list — which is exactly the part Boltom App takes off your hands: it doesn't order for you and doesn't forecast, but it shows which products you keep throwing away, and what that costs.
Frequently asked questions
How much waste is normal in a small shop?
One to three percent of turnover is common where fresh food is sold. The figure alone says little: what matters is which products it comes from, because every fix starts with a single product.
How do I track expiring products without a dedicated system?
Record what leaves the shelf before closing, and why. After two weeks the summary shows which products are routinely over-ordered — that is enough to act on.
By how much should I cut an order?
Ten to twenty percent, then watch for two weeks. A big cut flips you into the opposite error and hides which change caused what.
What should I do with stock close to expiry?
Discount it two or three days ahead, with a clear shelf sign and an end date. That way at least the purchase price comes back.
How do I know I'm ordering too little of something?
It sells out before the end of the day, regularly. That is as much an error as waste — it just leaves no trace, which is why it has to be written down.
To order well, you first have to see what sells and what goes in the bin.
Boltom App does not order for you and does not forecast. What it does show is what sells best and which products you throw out again and again — in money. After that, the ordering decision stops being a feeling.
- Top products by day: what actually moves, and what only sits there.
- Daily waste with reasons, totalled in money — that is the price of over-ordering.
- With several shops, a separate report per shop: no blended average.
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